EdgeAI ingests news, prices, polls, and economic data; reasons over Kalshi event contracts with large language models and statistical forecasters; and executes positions with strict risk limits — 24 hours a day, with full transparency.
Every position EdgeAI takes goes through the same four-stage pipeline. Every trade is logged. Every decision is auditable.
Kalshi order books, news wires, weather feeds, polling aggregators, economic releases, and on-chain data — pulled second-by-second.
LLM agents read the news and form a thesis. Statistical models (logit, gradient boosting, time-series) produce calibrated probabilities. Ensembled.
Fractional Kelly with hard caps per market, per category, and per day. Stop-outs on drawdown. No martingaling. Ever.
Posts limit orders, walks the book conservatively, and exits on thesis change, target, or stop — through the Kalshi API.
Event contracts settle 0 or 1. The math is different. EdgeAI is purpose-built for binary outcomes — not retrofitted from an equities bot.
Reads breaking headlines from the AP, Reuters, government feeds, and re-prices its forecast in seconds — not minutes.
Compares its calibrated probability to the implied probability in the market. Trades only when edge > cost-to-trade.
Per-market cap (default 2% NAV), per-category cap (default 8%), daily drawdown halt (default 4%). Configurable, never disabled.
Every model passes 18+ months of historical simulation and 6+ weeks of paper trading before touching real capital.
Every trade includes the inputs, model version, probability, and the LLM's written rationale. Nothing is a black box.
Calibration is re-checked weekly. Models that drift get retired. New models compete in a paper environment before promotion.
Telegram, Slack, or SMS notifications for fills, large moves, daily P/L, and any guardrail trip.
Open positions, realized P/L, calibration curves, exposure by category, and a searchable log of every decision.
EdgeAI connects to your Kalshi account via API key — funds stay in your name, on Kalshi. We never take custody.
Kalshi lists hundreds of event contracts across many categories. EdgeAI focuses where models have a measurable edge over the order book.
Sample equity curve from a 12-month paper + small-stake research run. Past results from a research environment are not a guarantee of future results.
EdgeAI is a research project. Trading event contracts on Kalshi or any prediction market involves real risk of loss, including total loss of capital staked on a contract. Past results from backtests, paper trades, or research portfolios are not indicative of future returns. Nothing on this page is an offer to sell or solicitation to buy securities or commodities, and nothing here constitutes investment, financial, or legal advice. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange; you trade in your own account, under your own KYC. Talk to a licensed advisor before allocating capital.
No. EdgeAI connects to your Kalshi account via an API key. Your funds stay on Kalshi, in your name, under your KYC. We never custody capital.
Kalshi contracts are binary and CFTC-regulated. The math is closer to sports betting and insurance than equities or crypto. EdgeAI is built specifically for that — calibrated probabilities, Kelly sizing, edge measured in cents-per-contract.
Small but consistent on a subset of markets where public data is rich (economics, weather, well-polled politics). Edge is measured per market: model probability minus implied probability, after fees. We only trade when edge exceeds a configurable threshold.
It will be — often. Profitability comes from being right slightly more than the implied odds suggest, with disciplined sizing so losers stay small. Hard risk limits and daily drawdown halts are non-negotiable.
Yes — every fill, every model rationale, every guardrail event is in the dashboard and pushed to Telegram/Slack if you want. You can pause or stop EdgeAI at any time from the UI.
Trading on Kalshi is legal for eligible U.S. residents (Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market). Using software to trade your own account is allowed under Kalshi's API terms. Some states restrict certain contract types — Kalshi enforces those rules at the exchange level.
EdgeAI is currently invite-only while we expand model coverage and capacity. Drop us a note and we'll loop you in.